England trail Italy and Germany: Race for two extra Champions League spots

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The race for the two extra Champions League places based on European performance this season has returned to the spotlight. After a two-month hiatus, the three European club competitions returned this week. As it stands, Germany and Italy are leading the race but England and Spain are in strong contention ahead of the knockout stages in 2024. 

The Champions League is undergoing major reconstruction ahead of next season’s competition with the group stages replaced by a 36-team league - with four additional places. Two of those slots will be handed to clubs with the highest UEFA coefficient, who miss out on qualification and the other two will be awarded to the best performing leagues in this season’s European competitions - Champions League, Europa League and Conference League. Those leagues will be decided by the average coefficient points; calculated by accumulating the total coefficient points collected per nation then divided by the number of competing clubs. Coefficient points are awarded based on results - two for a win, one for a draw and zero for a defeat - and they remain the same across all three competitions. Bonus points, however, are also assigned based on progression to each stage and that’s ranked by competition.

State of play in race for extra Champions League places  

Given the nature of the coefficient system, it’s incredibly likely that the two extra places based on UEFA performance will be secured by two of the top five European leagues. Across the last five seasons, only the Netherlands would’ve picked up one of the extra places after their clubs performed well in 2021-22. While historically major leagues dominate, French clubs haven’t excelled in Europe this season and they only moved ahead of Czech Republic and Belgium in the race after the return of European competition this week. The play-off rounds in the Europa League and Europa Conference League count towards a nations score, so they could be important in the final standings. France have four clubs - Marseille, Rennes, Lens and Toulouse - competing in the play-off rounds but England don't have any as all their clubs won their respective groups. While France's ranking has improved, it's likely to be a three horse race between Serie A, the Bundesliga and Premier League to secure the extra places.

Italy and Germany lead the race with England trailing 

All seven Serie A clubs have qualified for the knockout stages and they lead the race with 14 coefficient points. It’s been a remarkable campaign for Italian clubs so far with Inter Milan, Napoli and Lazio all reaching the last 16 of the Champions League. AC Milan  and Roma played in the play-off round of the Europa League on Thursday with Milan beating Rennes 3-0 and Roma drawing with Feyenoord in the Netherlands. Fiorentina and Atalanta qualified automatically after topping their groups and they'll return to action in March.

Germany narrowly lead England in second place with a coefficient ranking of 13.64 after six of their seven clubs progressed to the knockout phases. Bayern Munich, Borussia Dortmund and RB Leipzig are all through in the Champions League with Dortmund impressing to win a group containing Newcastle United, AC Milan and PSG. Bayer Leverkusen sit top of the Bundesliga and their stunning form continued in Europe as they topped their Europa League group. Freiburg drew 0-0 with Lens in the first leg of their Europa League play-off, with Frankfurt drawing 1-1 with Union SG in the Conference League.

It was a hugely disappointing Champions League campaign for English clubs with Newcastle United and Manchester United finishing bottom of their groups and crashing out of Europe completely. England’s coefficient chances will likely hinge on teams outside in the Europa League and Conference League with all four clubs topping their group. Brighton and West Ham secured top spot with final matchday victories while tournament favourites Liverpool eased through and Aston Villa won their Conference League group. 

La Liga had five clubs in the Champions League after Sevilla won the UEL last saeson but they crashed out of Europe completely after finishing bottom of their group. Atletico Madrid, Barcelona, Real Madrid and Real Sociedad all qualified leaving Spain with the most teams left in Europe’s premier competition. Villareal are through to the last 16 of the Europa League, while Real Betis lost 1-0 at home to Dinamo Zagreb in their Conference League play-off.